Interview Query

Raining in Seattle

31
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You are about to get on a plane to Seattle. You want to know if you should bring an umbrella. You call 3 random friends of yours who live there and ask each independently if it’s raining. Each of your friends has a 23 chance of telling you the truth and a 13 chance of messing with you by lying. All 3 friends tell you that “Yes” it is raining.

What is the probability that it’s actually raining in Seattle?

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