Causal Email Journey

Let’s say that you work for an E-commerce store. A new marketing manager joins the company and redesigns the existing new-user email journey to try and boost customer conversion rates. A few weeks after launching the new email journey, the new-user to customer conversion rate goes up from 40% to 43%.

Before you can celebrate, the company’s CMO points out a troubling fact. Just a few months prior to the new manager starting the conversion rate already stood at 45%, before slowly dropping down to the “starting” 40%.

How would you investigate if the redesigned email campaign actually led to the increase in the conversion rate, and that the increase wasn’t instead the result of other factors?